Bracket Talk v1.04
I’m going to try a slightly different format this week, where I show each region and share thoughts on it. Let me know what you think!
No shock here, as Auburn holds on to the overall 1-seed. With 9 Q1 wins, it would take multiple losses for Auburn to fall off the top spot, much less the 1-seed line.
Oregon is in a volatile position. Like Auburn, they’ve stacked over a half dozen Q1 wins and rank 2nd in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), but a Q2 loss to UCLA at home and a generally unfavorable set of quality metrics limit how high I’m willing to put them for now.
Missouri has been the surprise of the SEC so far. While it’s early, they’re 3-1 in conference play, and have the best set of two wins in the country - at Kansas and at Florida.
While Duke may *look* like one of the two best teams in the country, the Cyclones have the better resume right now, nabbing the #2 overall seed.
This region has landmines all over the place. Houston has played like a 1-seed this season, but they’ve tripped up in all of their Q1 chances. Big 12 play will help with that. UNC, UConn, and UCLA have similarly had a rough go of it on the results end, but are all incredibly talented and could each make an Elite 8 run.
After last year’s heated debates about Michigan State’s bonafides, Tom Izzo has the Spartans back competing for the Big 10 and a top 4 seed. They still have home-and-home dates with Illinois and Michigan on the schedule, so we’ll know more in a few weeks about this team.
While Oregon State isn’t a program to turn your nose up at, they’re not in this bracket for a reason. Gonzaga doesn’t often drop conference games to teams not named St. Mary’s, but dropping a game to the newcomers last night certainly hurt the resume.
Pitt is in a precarious position in the bracket right now. At a 10-seed, they’ve slipped in recent weeks from being comfortably in to approaching the bubble. They have a date with Clemson this weekend which would would bolster their resume and move them back up into clear safety.
The Big West is almost assuredly a one-bid league this year, but there’s a handful of really good teams at the top of the conference. I’ve got UC San Diego winning it, but UC Irvine is right there as well. Both teams are just barely outside the bubble conversation, but with at most a single Q1 chance for both of them, they’ll need to qualify with an autobid. Cal State Northridge and UC Santa Barbara could easily sneak the conference tournament away from them as quality teams in their own right.
Tennessee is hanging on to the 1-seed right now, but I think it’s safer to call this spot “whoever finishes 2nd in the SEC”.
VCU is in on an auto-bid for the time being, but the A10 they’ll have a strong case to make the tournament as an at-large if they don’t win their tournament. They’ll pick up several Q2 opportunities, but a Q1 trip to Dayton in March will be key to building their case.
Illinois is scorching hot, and is probably the Big 10’s best chance at a 1-seed. They face off against Duke in Madison Square Garden next month in a game they’ll need to take if they want to move up to the top.
