Bracket Talk v1.15

As the regular season has wrapped up, and conference tournaments are underway, the time for hypothesizing, projecting, wishing, and hoping is over. For the most part, the field is set. Only a few teams remain on the bubble, and while bid stealers lurk, most of the prognosticating is around seeding and matchups.

I’m going to try and update this daily until Selection Sunday, and keep the format straightforward.

Auto-Bid/Conference Tournament Winners (23)

Bids secured (14)

• ASUN - Lipscomb

• Big Sky - Montana

• Big South - High Point

• MVC - Drake

• OVC - SIU Edwardsville

• Summit - Omaha

• SoCon - Wofford

• Sun Belt - Troy

• CAA - UNC Wilmington

• Horizon - Robert Morris

• NEC - Saint Francis

• Patriot League - American

• Southland - McNeese St.

• WCC - Gonzaga

One-bid league title games coming up (10)

• Saturday

  • ACC (Multi-bid league)

  • America East

  • Big 12 (Multi-bid league)

  • Big East (Multi-bid league)

  • Big West

  • CUSA

  • MAAC

  • MAC

  • MEAC

  • Mountain West (Multi-bid league)

  • SWAC

  • WAC

• Sunday

  • A10 (Possible one-bid league)

  • American (Bid stealer potential)

  • Big Ten (Multi-bid league)

  • Ivy League

  • SEC (Multi-bid league)

At-Large Locks (42)

• ACC (3) - Clemson, Duke, Louisville

• American (1) - Memphis

• Big Ten (9) - Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

• Big 12 (8) - Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

• Big East (4) - Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn

• Mountain West (3) - New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

• SEC (13) - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, UGA, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

• WCC (1) - St. Mary’s

Bid Stealers (1)

Right now, I’m holding space for one bid stealer. I don’t see anyone not already in the field winning the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, or SEC titles, and there’s likely 22 conference’s guaranteed to only get a single bid, even if their favorite gets upset. That leaves just three other leagues where we could see bid stealers - the A10, the American, and the MWC.

• A10 - Dayton dropped out of the running yesterday with a loss to St. Joe’s. I’m still unclear if VCU makes the field with a loss in the next two days. The Rams should handle Loyola today, but St. Joe’s and George Mason are chomping at the bit to get a shot at the regular season champs (and earn a bid)

• American - UAB and North Texas will play today for a chance to play in Sunday’s title game. We almost locked in the American as a bid stealer yesterday, but Memphis was able to survive late against Wichita State.

• Mountain West - We’re into true bid-stealer territory here. Boise, who would be my first team out if they were to lose this game, takes on Colorado State, who is fully out of the field outside of winning the autobid. This may truly be a win-or-go-home scenario for both teams tonight.

The Bubble (2)

With 68 bids for the dance, that leaves two spots left for teams on the bubble. That number will decrease for every multi-bid conference with a bid stealer (team that wins the conference title, but would not have made it as an at-large). How many teams are left in contention for those spots? By my count, five.

• Arkansas IN

• Baylor IN

• Boise State

• Indiana IN

• North Carolina (added to bubble)

• Ohio State OUT

• Oklahoma IN

• San Diego State IN

• Texas (added to bubble)

• Utah State IN

• VCU (added to bubble)

• Xavier

The two most intriguing bubble teams each took (respectable) losses yesterday, with Texas losing to Tennessee and UNC losing to Duke in heartbreaking fashion. Both teams make compelling cases (Texas with 7 Q1 wins, UNC with borderline top 30 quality metrics and only one loss below Q1), but as it stands now I think only one gets in. Texas is my last team in.

As mentioned above, Boise State is my first team out if they are unable to capture the MWC Title today. I am projecting them and VCU win their autobids, but if they do not the bubble will become a mess quickly with the bid stealers. Stay tuned.

Bracket Movement

The only change today aside from bubble movers was swapping St. John’s and Texas Tech as the last 2/first 3 seed. I’ve been leaning towards the flip for a day or two now, and St. John’s looking likely to pull of the double is enough to vault them out of the near stalemate resume-wise the Red Raiders.